If you’ve been following industry news, you’ve been hearing about disappointing growth in EV sales. It’s gotten to the point that automakers are dialing back their electrification goals, delaying electric models, and considering more hybrids in their portfolios.
If you’re an EV fan or advocate, or just hoping for a shift toward a more climate-friendly automotive landscape, the news could be discouraging. Well, you ought not to let the current mood surrounding EVs let you down. 2025 could offer a glimmer of hope, if EV sales shake out according to the latest forecast from S&P Global.
Slow Growth For Overall Sales
According to S&P’s analysis, the light passenger vehicle market as a whole isn’t supposed to make any big moves in the coming year. Its 2025 forecast sees global sales reaching 89.6 million units, which is just a 1.7-percent increase from 2024. That’s about the same rate of increase as the year prior.
In the United States, vehicle sales are expected to grow 1.2 percent, from 16.0 million units in 2024, up to 16.2 million in 2025. That’s better than Europe, though, which grew 1.1 percent in 2024, falling to a 0.1-percent predicted growth in 2025. China is showing a significant recovery, with sales expected to be 3.0 percent higher than in 2024.
EVs Will Grow 30 Percent, Outstripping The Market As A Whole
When we look at EV sales, the picture is much rosier, as S&P predicts much better growth. Globally, it predicts 15.1 million units for 2025, which is up 30 percent from 2024. As a share of the market, battery-electric vehicles are expected to make up 16.7 percent of global light passenger vehicle sales. That rate of growth varies by region, but even looking at them individually, the predictions are encouraging:
BEV Share Estimates In 2025
|
BEV Share By Region |
Year-Over-Year Change |
|
|---|---|---|
|
Europe (Central/Western) |
20.4 Percent |
43.4 Percent |
|
U.S. |
11.2 Percent |
36.0 Percent |
|
China |
29.7 Percent |
19.7 Percent |
|
India |
7.5 Percent |
117 Percent |
|
Global |
16.7 Percent |
29.9 Percent |
Europe appears to be the big winner, posting big gains over an already high market share. In the U.S., EV sales are expected to grow 36 percent in 2025, though making up a smaller market share than in Europe or China. China will remain the leader in EV market share, at 29.7 percent, a growth of almost a fifth over 2024. India’s admittedly tiny EV market share should more than double in 2025.
Uncertainty Lingers In 2025
The U.S. could be a bit of a wild card in 2025. For one thing, the incoming Trump administration is hard to predict. The former and future president hasn’t been particularly friendly towards EVs, but Elon Musk has his ear. Trump has also proposed a number of tariffs, the effects of which are hard to predict. S&P notes that “deregulation should create tailwinds for the North American auto industry later in President Trump’s second term.” The fact that S&P still predicts such favorable trends for electric vehicles in the U.S. and worldwide is somewhat comforting.
And as some have been eager to point out, automakers dialing back their EV strategies from such an aggressive acceleration toward electrification isn’t necessarily all doom and gloom. More diverse offerings, including hybrids and plug-in hybrids, mean more electric miles from drivers who weren’t necessarily ready to go all-electric. Let’s just hope that S&P’s predictions bear out, and that we’ll see more customers finding that an EV is what fits their lifestyle in 2025.
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